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Initially, Donald Trump gave the impression to adopt a firm approach concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering warnings of "severe consequences" during the summer in case Vladimir Putin persisted hindering truce discussions, the former president ultimately enacted major sanctions on Russia's biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision substantially impacted the Russian leader's capacity to support his war effort in the region.

But, via his latest detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, which was drafted by US and Russian officials excluding Ukraine's or EU input, Trump has seemingly returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Benefiting Aggression

This proposal would effectively reward the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Although bold statements that "The nation's autonomy will be affirmed", much of the initiative in reality undermine that same sovereignty. What represents a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his business experience, Trump continues to view the situation in Ukraine as a mere territorial dispute, like giving Russia a portion of Ukraine's land will appease the leader. But, Putin's war is not only about dominating a damaged area of industrial-devastated land in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's clear desire to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the democratic governance that his increasing dictatorship prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

Although freezing in position the already split oblasts of these areas, the initiative would require Ukraine to abandon the entire this eastern territory. Beyond favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been unsuccessful to occupy in over a decade of conflict, this surrender would render Ukraine's defenses critically compromised.

Donetsk is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "defensive line", the fortified defensive positions that are a essential impediment to enemy progress. Trump would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, providing Putin a clear route to the capital in case he subsequently choose to resume the hostilities.

Defense Limitations

Furthermore, in a move that would enable future hostilities simpler for Russia, Trump would require the nation to reduce the scale of its military from their current large number soldiers to a limit of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's plan places no such constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to portray the nation's legitimate government as radicals, Trump's proposal asserts: "All extremist belief system and practices must be rejected and banned." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, the proposal imposes no obligation that the Russian leader risk his authoritarian rule by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

To be sure, the initiative makes the Russian Federation commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its policy of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". But considering that Putin has violated similar treaties in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a ceasefire and a restoration of seized territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – why should we trust Putin now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international security guarantees. Although the initiative threatens a "decisive unified military response" in case the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the specifics vary from fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not just block Ukraine Nato membership but also preclude Nato members from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively blocking the security presence, likely led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to prevent Putin from rebuilding his reduced forces, rearming, and resuming aggression.

Global Concern

A separate supplementary accord apparently would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an act of war jeopardizing the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This implies a military response. But in contrast to a powerful national defense – Ukraine's best defense against additional hostilities – the success of the supplementary deal would depend on the dedication of alliance members, including the US administration, to act through arms to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not