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Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."